The NBA Finals will be rapidly coming to a close this week. The San Antonio Spurs are up 3-2 on the Miami Heat with two games to play in Miami. I don’t know what the odds are in Las Vegas as the eventual winner, but even though Miami is down in the series I’ll bet it is a “pick ‘em” bet.

Neither team has been able to win two in a row from the other, and that says the Heat wins game 6. Now it’s 3-3, and because they are at home, the Heat will be the favorite in Game 7. That doesn’t mean they will win Game 7, but those odds makers in Las Vegas rarely miss much, if anything.

Spurs are ahead. Coach Popovich’s game plan, good defense, etc., etc. I think the primary factor is the Spurs have scored and have to continue to win. They have to be around the 100-point mark or they won’t win. I look at the flow of the game and if I see Spurs 25+ at the quarter, 50+ at the half-time break and 75+ at the end of three they will be in the game with a chance to win.

They need to get up and down the court at all times so that Miami is not quite set defensively. When they do that, Tim Duncan gets a bucket or two because he is guarded one-on-one down low and maybe by a smaller player. Tony Parker penetrates, finds a lane and manufactures two points. The same goes for Manu Ginobili. And, maybe, Danny Green gets a good look at one of his long distance three pointers.

If the pace slows, Miami is quicker and willl defend well on the half court. They will own the defensive boards, so the Spurs won’t get many second shots. No matter what anyone tells you, great offense beats great defense. Those coaches who tell you a different story couldn’t shoot when they played the game so they had to rely on defense. Besides, offense and defense are not separate activities in the game of basketball. One is part and parcel of the other.